Correct Score Predictions
Correct-score is the highest-variance football market — we publish a probabilistic lean for each match, not a "sure" score.
How we build the score lean
A Poisson-style goal-expectancy model takes both teams’ attacking and defensive ratings, adjusts for home/away and schedule strength, and produces a probability distribution over all scorelines. The single most likely score becomes the published "lean".
Because the typical Premier League correct-score market has 20+ outcomes priced, even the most likely score usually carries a probability around 10–14%. We never present it as a confident pick.
Risk and variance
Correct-score insights are the part of the report most exposed to variance. We label them clearly with the model’s probability so readers can size their interest accordingly.
FAQ
- How often is the most-likely correct score actually the result?
- On the long run, around 10–15% of finished matches end on the model’s single most-likely score. That’s the nature of the market — every individual game can break either way.
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